GDP data under cloud: Govt should know that this is a crisis of credibility

Company News

India’s government has long claimed that the country is one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world. That boast was a crucial part of the ruling party’s message in India’s recent election campaign — that, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the economy was in safe hands. Competence and sincerity as an economic manager is central to the image Modi has sought to project.
Unfortunately, that claim looks increasingly unsupportable. Earlier this month, official government figures revealed that the economy had been slowing for three quarters. After months of denial, the government also admitted that unemployment is higher than it has been for four decades. Now, Arvind Subramanian, a well-regarded economist who was till last year one of Modi’s most senior advisers, has argued in a Harvard working paper that India’s official figures overestimate growth by several percentage points. While the government claims that India is growing at 7%, Subramanian suggests it’s actually growing at closer to 4.5%.
Subramanian’s methodology can certainly be questioned, and his estimate of actual GDP growth may be wrong. But, the fact remains that he has merely made explicit, through comparisons across time and with other middle-income economies, the central puzzle of Indian GDP data: If India’s growing so fast, why do most other indicators suggest the economy is stagnating or slowing? Whether looking at credit growth or vehicle purchases, exports or investment, there’s little support for the idea that India is enjoying breakneck growth at the moment.

 It’s past time that India’s government took this problem seriously — both the questions about India’s GDP data and the concerns about what the data reveals about the economy. So far, the government has denied that official data could be questioned, even though senior independent statisticians have quit after accusing politicians of concealing the unemployment figures.