RBI rate cut, government stimulus done. What are the markets eyeing now?

After the relief package by the government for the poor and the marginalized sections of society and a series of liquidity enhancing measure by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced over the past few weeks, the central bank slashed rates by a 75 basis points (bps) – the most aggressive cut in the last 10 years. That apart, the RBI put a moratorium on all equated monthly installments (EMIs) on loans to ease the borrower’s pain.
On their part, the Indian markets which expected the authorities to roll out measures to stem the fall and stabilise sentiment after the over 35 per cent fall from the peak levels seen earlier this year triggered by the sudden and rampant spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic across the globe, witnessed profit booking. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 1,310 points from the day’s high to close marginally negative on Friday post the RBI’s measures.
With these expected stimulus measures out of the way, will the markets continue on their journey south? What are the cues they will keep a tab on?
Over the next few weeks, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile and now track developments related to Covid-19 across the globe and how fast & successfully the governments are able to combat the pandemic. Back home, the 21 day lockdown imposed by the government and the possibility of an extension in the same will sway investor sentiment, they say.
As regards policies, most expect this to be an ongoing process – at least till the time the economy is up and running. They, however, caution that the government could run out of dry powder soon in its fight against Covid-19 given the fiscal situation and the fact that the Indian economy was already slowing down ahead of this pandemic.
“We expect coordinated fiscal and monetary easing to continue. We believe the next tranche of fiscal measures will address cash-flow challenges faced by SMEs and other hard-hit industries. Amid weak growth, we believe the government may temporarily suspend the FRBM legislation and the central government’s fiscal deficit is likely to rise to around 5 per cent of GDP in FY21 versus 3.5 per cent budgeted,” wrote Sonal Varma, managing director and chief India economist at Nomura in a co-authored report with Aurodeep Nandi.
They now expect a further 75 bps cut in repo rate in the second and the third quarter of 2020 (Q2-Q3/2020). On unconventional policies, they see more aggressive open market operations, further liquidity injections via targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), including expanding its scope to target banks loans.
Those at BofA Securities, too, share a similar view and expect the RBI to remain aggressive as regards its policies. They expect the central bank to cut rates by 25bp each in June and October and peg the inflation rate at 2.5 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020-21 (H2FY21).

“We now see its 2020 rate cuts totaling 125bp up from 100bp. This, in turn, will take the RBI reverse repo rate to 3.5 per cent, close to 2009's 3.25 per cent low. We have cut down our FY21 growth forecast to 4 per cent,” wrote Indranil Sen Gupta, India economist at BofA Securities, in a co-authored report with Aastha Gudwani.

RBI's rate cut provides the much-needed balm to revive the economy

A rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was much expected this time and the Governor did not disappoint. The aggressive cut of 75 basis points (bps) in the repo rate is commendable, as it provides the balm required to revive the economy. This is evidently meant to counter the negative impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Governor Shaktikanta Das was very prudent in not giving a forecast for growth or inflation because, as he rightly stated, with things changing so fast, it is not certain how long the threat will last and how its spread and depth will impact the economy. Therefore, the policy is directed towards the immediate problem of mitigating the damage caused by the virus.
The RBI has decided to use a novel way to influence interest rates. The repo rate has come down to 4.4 per cent, while the reverse repo rate is now 4 per cent with a difference of 40 bps. The idea is to ensure that banks do not deposit surpluses in the reverse repo auctions, which is averaging Rs 3 trillion on a daily basis. Now, they will be forced to invest their surpluses in credit rather than giving it to the RBI. This is probably the first time that the central bank has changed this corridor size to 65 bps from 40 bps. It will be interesting to see how banks respond, as they would need to be more responsive to the need of the hour and change their mindset to ensure they lend more to companies.
The move to expand liquidity in the system is again very noteworthy. The twist this time is that the long-term refinance option (LTRO) of Rs 1-trillion will have to be invested in corporate bonds, commercial papers (CPs) or debentures, which in a way will be beneficial for the markets and is, hence, novel. While the LTRO was so far targeted at providing funds for direct lending, this time it is more for direct subscription of paper, which also means it cannot be hoarded or invested in government paper. Second, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut provides another 1 per cent of NDTL to banks for lending purposes with a lower minimum daily balance to be maintained.
The MSF increase of 1 per cent, along with the above two measures, would infuse another Rs 3.74 trillion into the system – that is a big jump in liquidity. Combine this with the open-market operations (OMO) and LTRO of the past, and the monetary stimulus provided is 3.2 per cent of GDP, which is quite substantial from the point of view of the RBI, which has supplemented the efforts of the government in alleviating the pain caused by Covid-19.
The regulatory measures are also important because this is something that the market players were looking forward to. The three-month moratorium on all term loans is quite the need of the hour, which will make it easier for companies as the cut in supply chains and the lockdown have meant a severe blow to most companies in terms of their ability to service debt. For banks, a deferment of maintenance of the last tranche of the capital conservation buffer would provide relief as they also readjust their balance sheets to meet regulatory compliances.

On the whole, the announcements are very good and the RBI has done this well in time so that from the monetary end all impediments are addressed to a large extent. The assurance that Indian banks are very safe is timely, as there had been some scepticism building up early this month.

RBI faces calls to do more than just one rate cut amid economic slowdown

International News

India's central bank is poised to deliver its fourth successive quarter-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, amid calls from investors and the government for further easing as a slowdown gripping the economy becomes more pervasive.
The Reserve Bank of India will lower the benchmark repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.5 per cent, according to almost all of the 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Swap markets are pricing in at least another 50 basis points of reductions before the end of 2019.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has ratcheted up pressure on the six-member monetary policy committee for a "significant cut" to lift economic growth from a five-year low. Inflation that's stayed below the central bank's 4 per cent medium-term target for 11 months in a row and the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since the financial crisis allows room to retain the policy makers' easing bias.
A quarter-point cut will take the benchmark rate to the lowest since April 2010. With price pressures anchored, the central bank may have the leeway to keep rates lower for longer.
"We expect 75 basis points of additional rate cuts spread over August, the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, taking the repo rate to 5 per cent by March 2020," said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Mumbai. The headline inflation will stay below the RBI's medium-term target for the "foreseeable future" due to a lack of underlying price pressures across sectors, she said.
Data dependent

 Policy action will be data-dependent, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in an interview last month, while suggesting that the MPC has already delivered 100 basis points worth of easing as...Read More