Impossible job: India's pollsters face the uphill battle to call election

Economy & Policy:

Thousands of candidates, hundreds of parties, endless combinations of possible coalitions – spare a thought for India’s pollsters, tasked with making sense of the country’s fiendishly complicated politics ahead of a general election due by May.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a surprise majority in 2014. Until last year, many predicted a similar result. But amid rising anger over unemployment and a fall in rural incomes, the BJP lost key state elections in December, making this contest more closely fought than first expected.

That means surveys conducted on behalf of newspapers and TV channels will be closely scrutinized. Some of India’s top pollsters however, told Reuters current surveys could be wide of the mark until the parties finalize alliances, which could be as late as April – and even then, there are challenges.
“In India there are certain relationships between caste, religion and allegiance,” said VK Bajaj, chief executive of Today’s Chanakya, the only polling firm to predict the BJP would win an outright majority in 2014. “We have to do checks and counter-checks when collecting our samples.”

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 Opinion polls grew in popularity in India in the 1990s, after economic liberalization saw a boom in privately-owned newspapers and TV channels, all demanding their own surveys.

2019 polls: Why govt should aim to create jobs, not offer basic income

General Election 2019:

During election season, which we’re entering in India, everyone likes the idea of giving voters more money. Congress Party President Rahul Gandhi, the de facto opposition leader, says his party will guarantee a minimum income for the country’s poor if victorious. Reports suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government may compete by announcing some form of direct transfer of cash to farmers in the interim budget to be revealed on Friday, which could cost the exchequer nearly $10 billion annually.

While governments everywhere should take care of their most vulnerable citizens, the idea of guaranteeing a basic income is wrong for India right now. Fundamentally, it would only work if two conditions were met. First, large sections of the population would have to be mired in absolute poverty. And second, all other subsidies and welfare programs for them would have to be abolished in order to free up the necessary funds without completely blowing open India’s fiscal deficit, which is already strained.

ALSO READ: Interim Budget 2019: Before polls, govt wants expansionary economic policy


 Neither condition prevails in India. While there’s no recent government estimate of the number of people living below the poverty line, credible research by the Brookings Institution suggests that extreme poverty in India, defined as those living on less than $2 a day, now afflicts only five percent of the population. Granted, that’s still more than 70 million people. But, for the vast majority of Indians, the challenge is no longer subsistence, it’s aspiration. No basic income guarantee will be able to address rising aspirations unless it’s a very large sum of money. At India’s level of national income, providing anything more than a subsistence income would simply be unaffordable...Read More

Will be unconstitutional for govt to present full Budget: Yashwant Sinha

Interim Budget 2019:

Former finance minister Yashwant Sinha it would be "entirely improper and unconstitutional" if the Modi government presents a full budget ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, as he asked it to stick to the convention of outgoing dispensations presenting an interim budget.

A strong critic of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government, Sinha also accused it of "dressing up" economic figures despite the country facing an "unprecedented" agrarian distress, employment not picking up and the huge non-performing asset (NPA) problem being not tackled the way it should have been.

Interacting with reporters at an event in Indian Women's Press Corps, he said Priyanka Gandhi's entry into active politics will have a positive impact and strengthen the Congress.
Taking a swipe at the government over present economic conditions, he said it would now claim by "tweaking" figures ahead of the general election that "river of milk" is flowing in the country and people were never happier.

Amid speculation that the government may present a full budget on February 1, Sinha said there is no precedence of an outgoing government doing so.


 "It would be entirely improper and unconstitutional on the part of this government to present a full budget," he said, adding that it should neither table the economy survey, which is generally presented a day before the budget is tabled, not present the Finance Bill.

What 2019 Budget can do to help India clean its air, reduce coal addiction

Interim Budget 2019:

India has one of the world’s largest programmes to expand renewables--a doubling of capacity over the next four years--but India’s ambitious 2022 target of generating enough non-coal energy to replace the equivalent of 175 coal-powered plants is veering off track.

On February 1, 2019, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a chance to get things back on track, help India reduce its addiction to coal, help clean the country’s air and meet the global climate-change commitments of the world’s fourth-fastest growing carbon polluter

After record growth in the installed capacity of renewables over the four years to 2017, capacity addition slowed down in 2018. The main reasons: an anti-dumping duty imposed by the government on imported solar modules to aid domestic manufacturing, higher rates of taxation under the goods and service tax (GST) and unclear policy.So, the last budget before 2019 general elections is of particular significance to the renewables sector, which comprises electricity from solar, wind, hydro and bio power.

These are the issues the budget must contend with:

• Due to a 2018 slowdown, the government will have to install 3.5 times more capacity every month than its average speed for the last four years.
• A new duty on imported solar modules--which meet more than 80% of the country’s need--increased production costs and threaten the competitiveness of solar tariffs against those of coal.
• Higher GST rates on solar modules and services are driving away investors and manufacturers. Delays in a long-term policy to remove uncertainty from the sector is holding back new investment.

Saving our elections from manipulation: Regulatory agenda for social media

Economy & Policy:

I was six when my parent took me to see my first movie -- the 1937 animated film Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. Since I was raised in a home without television, the moving picture had a profound visceral effect on me.

As the tension built, I was completely overwhelmed by the sound and the evil laughter of the queen, and my unabated high-decibel reaction to what was happening on screen greatly annoyed the other patrons, forcing my parents to leave the cinema hall. Today, I watch with admiration as six-year-olds sit unmoved through hyper-realistic gruesome action and horror movies. This is because they have had screens surround them ever since they were born and are therefore less impacted by the digital content they consume.

There are many in our country who are similarly experiencing the Internet for the very first time without the advantage of being immunised through previous exposure. Many of them are illiterate, which makes it harder for them to determine the truth value of online content.


 This potential for manipulation through digital media has a “novelty effect” which reduces with time. Therefore, it is important that we don’t over-regulate social media based on the current impact on citizenry...Read More